USING THE WAVE CHARTS TO FORECAST EARTHQUAKES

Latest Update:  May 20, 2004



THE PURPOSE OF THIS WEB PAGE

Strategies For Identifying High Probability
Earthquake Triggering Time Windows

       The Wave Charts stored at this Web site are designed in part to provide professional and amateur earthquake forecasters with information regarding how they might determine when high probability earthquake triggering time windows are likely to occur in their local fault zones and in fault zones around the world.  This present Web page discusses specific strategies for identifying those time windows.  The plan is to add additional and more detailed strategies to this presentation with time.  Interested parties are invited to send comments and suggestions regarding this information to:  seismic@ix.netcom.com

       What is being discussed here represents fairly new technology.  At some point the processes of drawing lines on the Wave Charts and then interpreting them will probably be done by computer programs.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

What Is A Wave Chart?
A Demonstration Wave Chart
Wave Charts For Some Past Destructive Earthquakes
Using The Wave Charts To Forecast Earthquake Aftershocks
Earthquake Data Fingerprints -
25 Hour Versus 30 Day Earthquake Triggering Time Cycles



What Is A Wave Chart?

       It is a collection of waves and colored vertical time lines on a chart.  The waves represent things such as the strengths of the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon on the Earth plotted against time.  The vertical time lines represent time windows during which earthquake precursor signals were detected or when earthquakes or aftershocks occurred.  In some cases you can determine when future high probability time windows will occur for an earthquake or aftershock by studying the locations of those time lines.  Additional information regarding what the Wave Charts represent can be found in the following files or reports:  A Pictorial Explanation Of Wave Chart Terms  Chart Term Definitions

A Demonstration Wave Chart

       As the following drawing shows, one way of using a Wave Chart would be to draw a time line on it at the location on the chart for the time when a powerful and destructive (hypothetical) earthquake occurred  (black vertical line).  Then different colored lines would be drawn on the chart at specific locations on future waves for that year.  Their positions would indicate where there are time windows during which there is an increased chance of an aftershock occurring.

Aftershock Probabilities

       Research is in progress regarding learning how to best use the Wave Charts.  And the actual probabilities associated with those various color time lines have not yet been accurately determined.  At the moment it appears that the following times could be important for earthquakes and aftershocks.

***  The blue (highest increased probability) time lines in that chart are at about the same locations on the upper waves as the time when the original earthquake occurred or when the precursor signal was detected.  Those are the times when the longitude difference between the sun and the moon in the sky is about the same for the time when the original earthquake occurred or precursor signal was detected and when the earthquake or aftershock following it occurred.  In the drawing the moon was about 100 longitude degrees to the west of the sun when both the original earthquake and the high probability time windows occurred.

***  The red (medium increased probability) time lines are for the times when the longitude difference between the positions of the sun and the moon relative to one another has changed by about 180 degrees compared with the original earthquake.  So if the moon were 100 degrees to the west of the sun in the sky when the original earthquake occurred then the red time lines would represent the times when it was 80 degrees to the east of the sun.

***  The orange (lowest increased probability) time lines are for the times when that moon longitude shift is 90 degrees to the east or to the west relative to the sun longitude when compared with the original earthquake.  So if the moon were 100 degrees to the west of the sun when the original earthquake occurred then the orange time lines would represent the times when it was 170 degrees to the east of or 10 degrees to the west of the sun.

       Also, note how the crests and troughs of some of the waves in that chart gradually shift positions relative to one another.  On the 90-05.html Web page there is a section which proposes that various forces such as the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon and fault zone strain linked with the Solid Earth Tide can combine to produce time windows during which there is a higher probability that an earthquake will occur.  It is believed that those time windows often occur at different times during the year when some of the important chart waves have crests at the same time.

Wave Charts For Some Past Destructive Earthquakes

       The following drawing contains five examples of how this technology might have been used in the past to help forecast destructive earthquakes had the Wave Charts been available when they occurred.

       These are the earthquakes shown in that Wave Chart.  Occurrence times, latitudes and longitudes etc. for them were obtained from U.S. government Web sites or reports.

1998/02/04 14:33:21 37N  70E 6.1 Afghanistan, highly destructive
1998/05/30 06:22:28 37N  70E 6.9 Afghanistan, highly destructive

1999/08/17 00:01:38 41N  30E 7.8 Turkey, highly destructive
1999/11/12 16:57:20 41N  31E 7.1 Turkey, highly destructive

2001/01/13 17:33:31 13N  89W 7.6 El Salvador, highly destructive
2001/02/13 14:22:09 14N  89W 6.5 El Salvador, highly destructive

1993/09/29 22:25:49 18N  76E 6.3 India, highly destructive
1993/11/12 13:27:28 18N  77E 4.6 India, moderately destructive

2001/01/26 03:16:41 23N  70E 7.9 India, highly destructive
2001/02/08 16:54:40 24N  70E 4.9 India, moderately destructive

       The ten earthquakes are organized into five earthquake pairs.  The second one in each pair might have been considered a destructive aftershock for the first earthquake.  However I am not certain of that.

       For each earthquake pair there are two Wave Chart drawing groups.  The first shows only the time lines for the earthquakes.  The second contains projected time lines drawn on what would have been future waves at the time of the first earthquake.  In those groups only the top portion of the black line for the second destructive earthquake is shown.  That makes it easier to compare projected time lines with the actual occurrence time for that earthquake.

Wave Charts For Destructive Earthquakes

       As can be seen with all five of those earthquake pairs, the matches between the projected time lines and earthquake occurrence times range from being fairly good to virtually exact.  That means that if this Wave Chart technology had been available and used when the first earthquake in each of those pairs occurred then the projected time lines would have done reasonably well with indicating when there would be higher probability time windows for a second destructive earthquake.

       One reason that some of the various color time lines are not exact matches for the time of the second earthquake might have to do with the fact that their alignment axis is the saw-tooth wave at the bottom of each Wave Chart.  Those time lines might instead actually need to be aligned with the upper level waves such as the one for the Earth acceleration in space.  And over time the positions of the peaks and troughs for those waves constantly shift a little to the left or to the right relative to the high and low points in that saw-tooth wave.

       With the Afghanistan, Turkey, and El Salvador earthquakes the matches between most of the wave shapes were fairly close.  One reason for that is the fact that both the first and second earthquakes in each pair occurred when the sun and moon were in roughly the same positions in the sky relative to one another.

       With both of the India earthquake pairs some of the second earthquake waves had inverted shapes compared with the first one.  That is partly because between the times when the two earthquakes in each of those pairs occurred, the position of the moon in the sky relative to the sun shifted about 180 longitude degrees.  In other words, when the first earthquake in each of those pairs occurred the sun and the moon were close to one another in the sky.  And when the second one in each pair occurred the sun and the moon were on opposites sides of the Earth.

       As previously mentioned, time lines based on the times when certain types of earthquake precursors were detected can be used in place of the first earthquake in those types of earthquake pairs.  For example, after using this Wave Chart technology to evaluate my own precursor data going back months in time, on May 14, 2003 I circulated a formal warning for a potentially destructive earthquake in the Japan area.  A likely looking date appeared to be May 16.  On May 26 a destructive earthquakes did occur in that area.  And quite a few people were reportedly injured.

Using The Wave Charts To Forecast Earthquake Aftershocks

       The following is a simple procedure for using the Wave Charts to forecast earthquake aftershocks.  As the previous drawing demonstrated, it works some of the time.  It can also be used to forecast some original earthquakes if the day that a precursor signal is detected is substituted for the day of the first earthquake.

A - 1   Become familiar with the Wave Charts, observations, and theories discussed on the following Web page:  Earthquake data for the years 1990 through 2005

A - 2   Download a copy of the following GIF file Wave Chart or copy the chart from this html file.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05w.gif
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05w.html 

A - 3   Load the GIF file into a drawing program such as Microsoft "Paint."

A - 4   Draw a black vertical line on the Wave Chart for the day when the original earthquake occurred.

A - 5   Use the date marker at the bottom of the Wave Chart and draw vertical lines on the Wave Chart at about 7 day intervals as shown in the following Wave Chart.  In some cases an earthquake aftershock will occur around the same day as indicated by one of the blue, red, or orange color time lines.

Wave Chart Intervals

 
Earthquake Data Fingerprints -
25 Hour Versus 30 Day Earthquake Triggering Time Cycles

       The remaining information on this Web page is not especially important to understanding how to use the Wave Charts.  It is being discussed here in order to provide researchers with additional details regarding earthquake triggering and forecasting processes.  See  Earthquake Data Fingerprints  for a more detailed explanation.

       The Wave Charts are picture type representations of a number of important earthquake triggering time cycles which are each about 30 days in length.  Another and perhaps even more important earthquake triggering time cycle is about 25 hours long.  At the moment it would be difficult to generate picture type representations for that particular time cycle.

       The following table contains the 25 hour cycle data for the five earthquake pairs shown in the previous chart.  Most of the data refer to things such as the longitudes of the positions of the sun and the moon in the sky when the earthquakes occurred.  With the first group of numbers 0, 90, 180, or 270 degrees have been added to the original longitude values so that they fall within a 0 to 90 degrees range.  That adjustment has to do with a type of earthquake longitude symmetry effect.  And it makes the data easier to evaluate.

       The data in the table which I usually focus on with my own earthquake forecasting program have the codes ac, am, ci, la, and sa, with ac and am being the most important.  ac values are related to the adjusted longitude of the "Gravity Point," the point on the Earth’s surface where the combined gravitational pulls of the sun and moon was strongest at the time when the earthquake occurred.  am refers to the adjusted moon longitude at that time.  ci and la refer to adjusted ocean tide crest and trough longitudes at the time of the earthquake with the reference points used in the data generation computer program being a location in the western Pacific Ocean and one in the Los Angeles, California area.  And sa refers to adjusted Solid Earth Tide crest and trough longitudes at the time of the earthquake with the reference point used in the data generation computer program being 0N and 75W.

       More detailed explanations for what the table data represent can be found on the following Web pages:  Key To The Table Abbreviations    Earthquake_Data_Fingerprints

UTC date sig aeql  ac am   ci la sa  t a g  ag as  ang emdist slat slon mlat mlon clat clon glat glon

AFGHANISTAN
98/02/04      20   52 30   21 70 28  5 5 6  56 34   98 375865  16S  34W  13N  60E   6N  38E   5N  34E  1998/02/04 14:33:21 37N  70E  6.1 AFGHANISTAN
98/05/30      20   51 35   24 88 49  6 8 3  54  6   58 386428  21N  84E  15N 145E  19N 129E  20N 126E  1998/05/30 06:22:28 37N  70E  6.9 AFGHANISTAN

TURKEY
99/08/17      60   41 24   12 78 40  6 7 2  46 89   67 398715  13N 179W   7S 114W   2S 131W   0S 136W  1999/08/17 00:01:38 41N  30E  7.8 TURKEY
99/11/12      59   40 25   12 85 43  6 8 2  44 78   50 405203  17S  78W  21S  25W  22S  40W  22S  44W  1999/11/12 16:57:20 41N  31E  7.1 TURKEY

EL SALVADOR
01/01/13      89    4 26   16 83 38  4 3 8   0 81 -125 366941  21S  81W   8N 154E   0S 176E   2S 180E  2001/01/13 17:33:31 13N  89W  7.6 EL SALVADOR
01/02/13      89   30 53   43 16 68  4 4 5  24 32 -108 381416  13S  32W  10S 143W  16S 120W  17S 114W  2001/02/13 14:22:09 14N  89W  6.5 EL SALVADOR

INDIA
93/09/29      14   86 79   42 31 77  1 1 2   1 68  169 406128   2S 158W   2N  11E   2N   4E   2N   1W  1993/09/29 22:25:49 18N  76E  6.3 INDIA
93/11/12      14   40 45   16 88 41  8 9 7  39 26  -19 360154  18S  26W  16S  45W  16S  40W  16S  39W  1993/11/12 13:27:28 18N  77E  4.6 INDIA

INDIA
01/01/26      20   33 27   92 78 35  7 9 2  34 46   17 405981  18S 134E  17S 153E  18S 147E  18S 146E  2001/01/26 03:16:41 23N  70E  7.9 INDIA
01/02/08      20   59 63   41 23 66  3 1 9  58 70 -174 357474  14S  70W  15N 117E  15N 121E  15N 122E  2001/02/08 16:54:40 24N  70E  4.9 INDIA


       As can be seen, most of the ac, am, ci, la, and sa values for both earthquakes in each of the Afghanistan and Turkey earthquake pairs are strikingly similar.  However, with the El Salvador and India earthquake pairs those data are quite different.

       What I have found is that earthquakes occurring at about the same longitude will often be linked with a somewhat limited number of sun and moon longitude value groups like those.  The values for the times when a number of precursor signals were detected may be good matches for the values associated with one earthquake such as that first one in El Salvador.  And the values for other precursor signals detected around the same time may match those for a different earthquake in the same area such as that second one in El Salvador.

       With the earthquake forecasting program I am running I watch for significant looking Wave Chart and data table matches for precursor signals and earthquakes.  Data processing computer programs I have developed are used to compare those types of longitude values etc. for earthquakes and precursor signals going back to about 1993.

       After evaluating the Afghanistan earthquake data with an earlier version of my forecasting program, on May 27, 1998 I posted an earthquake warning note to the sci.geo.earthquakes Internet Newsgroup stating that I was watching for earthquake activity possibly in Iran or Afghanistan to occur by May 30, 1998.  And on May 30 that second tremendously destructive earthquake occurred in Afghanistan.

Many more of those 25 hour cycle data can be found on the following Web pages:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/133.html
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/132.html

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This first version of this Web page was stored at this site on
June 11, 2003.  Comments regarding this Web site are welcome.
Please send them to:
seismic@ix.netcom.com  The information in
this Web page represents expressions of personal opinion by
the Web page author.  The address -URL- for this Web page is:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/130.html


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