USING THE WAVE CHARTS TO FORECAST EARTHQUAKES
Latest Update: May 20, 2004
THE PURPOSE OF THIS WEB PAGE
Strategies For Identifying
High Probability
Earthquake Triggering Time
Windows
The Wave Charts stored at this Web site are designed in part
to provide professional and amateur earthquake forecasters with
information regarding how they might determine when high probability
earthquake triggering time windows are likely to occur in their
local fault zones and in fault zones around the world. This
present Web page discusses specific strategies for identifying those
time windows. The plan is to add additional and more detailed
strategies to this presentation with time. Interested parties
are invited to send comments and suggestions regarding this information
to: seismic@ix.netcom.com
What
is being discussed here represents fairly new technology.
At some point the processes of drawing lines on the Wave Charts
and then interpreting them will probably be done by computer programs.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
What Is A Wave Chart?
A Demonstration Wave Chart
Wave Charts For Some Past Destructive Earthquakes
Using The Wave Charts To Forecast Earthquake Aftershocks
Earthquake Data Fingerprints -
25 Hour Versus 30 Day Earthquake Triggering Time Cycles
What Is A Wave Chart?
It is a
collection of waves and colored vertical time lines on a chart.
The waves represent things such as the strengths of the gravitational
pulls of the sun and the moon on the Earth plotted against time.
The vertical time lines represent time windows during which earthquake
precursor signals were detected or when earthquakes or aftershocks
occurred. In some cases you can determine when future high probability
time windows will occur for an earthquake or aftershock by studying
the locations of those time lines. Additional information regarding
what the Wave Charts represent can be found in the following files or reports:
A Pictorial Explanation
Of Wave Chart Terms Chart Term Definitions
A Demonstration Wave Chart
As the following drawing shows,
one way of using a Wave Chart would be to draw a time line on it at the
location on the chart for the time when a powerful and destructive (hypothetical)
earthquake occurred (black vertical line). Then different
colored lines would be drawn on the chart at specific locations on future
waves for that year. Their positions would indicate where there are
time windows during which there is an increased chance of an aftershock
occurring.
Research is in progress regarding
learning how to best use the Wave Charts. And the actual
probabilities associated with those various color time lines have
not yet been accurately determined. At the moment it appears
that the following times could be important for earthquakes and aftershocks.
*** The blue
(highest increased probability) time lines in that chart are
at about the same locations on the upper waves as the time when
the original earthquake occurred or when the precursor signal was
detected. Those are the times when the longitude difference
between the sun and the moon in the sky is about the same for the
time when the original earthquake occurred or precursor signal was
detected and when the earthquake or aftershock following it occurred.
In the drawing the moon was about 100 longitude degrees to the west
of the sun when both the original earthquake and the high probability
time windows occurred.
*** The red
(medium increased probability) time lines are for the times when
the longitude difference between the positions of the sun and
the moon relative to one another has changed by about 180 degrees
compared with the original earthquake. So if the moon were
100 degrees to the west of the sun in the sky when the original earthquake
occurred then the red time lines would represent the times when it
was 80 degrees to the east of the sun.
*** The orange
(lowest increased probability) time lines are for the times when
that moon longitude shift is 90 degrees to the east or to the west
relative to the sun longitude when compared with the original earthquake.
So if the moon were 100 degrees to the west of the sun when the
original earthquake occurred then the orange time lines would represent
the times when it was 170 degrees to the east of or 10 degrees to
the west of the sun.
Also, note
how the crests and troughs of some of the waves in that chart
gradually shift positions relative to one another. On the
90-05.html Web page there
is a section which proposes that various forces such as the gravitational
pulls of the sun and the moon and fault zone strain linked with
the Solid Earth Tide can combine to produce time windows during
which there is a higher probability that an earthquake will occur.
It is believed that those time windows often occur at different times
during the year when some of the important chart waves have crests at
the same time.
Wave Charts For Some Past Destructive Earthquakes
The following
drawing contains five examples of how this technology might
have been used in the past to help forecast destructive earthquakes
had the Wave Charts been available when they occurred.
These are the earthquakes
shown in that Wave Chart. Occurrence times, latitudes and
longitudes etc. for them were obtained from U.S. government Web sites
or reports.
1998/02/04 14:33:21 37N 70E 6.1 Afghanistan,
highly destructive
1998/05/30 06:22:28 37N 70E 6.9 Afghanistan,
highly destructive
1999/08/17 00:01:38 41N 30E 7.8 Turkey,
highly destructive
1999/11/12 16:57:20 41N 31E 7.1 Turkey,
highly destructive
2001/01/13 17:33:31 13N 89W 7.6 El Salvador,
highly destructive
2001/02/13 14:22:09 14N 89W 6.5 El Salvador,
highly destructive
1993/09/29 22:25:49 18N 76E 6.3 India,
highly destructive
1993/11/12 13:27:28 18N 77E 4.6 India,
moderately destructive
2001/01/26 03:16:41 23N 70E 7.9 India,
highly destructive
2001/02/08 16:54:40 24N 70E 4.9 India,
moderately destructive
The ten earthquakes are organized
into five earthquake pairs. The second one in each pair might
have been considered a destructive aftershock for the first earthquake.
However I am not certain of that.
For each earthquake pair there are two Wave
Chart drawing groups. The first shows only the time lines for
the earthquakes. The second contains projected time lines drawn
on what would have been future waves at the time of the first earthquake.
In those groups only the top portion of the black line for the
second destructive earthquake is shown. That makes it easier
to compare projected time lines with the actual occurrence time for
that earthquake.
As can be seen with all five of
those earthquake pairs, the matches between the projected time lines
and earthquake occurrence times range from being fairly good to virtually
exact. That means that if this Wave Chart technology had been available
and used when the first earthquake in each of those pairs occurred then the
projected time lines would have done reasonably well with indicating when
there would be higher probability time windows for a second destructive
earthquake.
One reason that some of the various
color time lines are not exact matches for the time of the second earthquake
might have to do with the fact that their alignment axis is the saw-tooth
wave at the bottom of each Wave Chart. Those time lines might
instead actually need to be aligned with the upper level waves such
as the one for the Earth acceleration in space. And over time the
positions of the peaks and troughs for those waves constantly shift a
little to the left or to the right relative to the high and low points
in that saw-tooth wave.
With the Afghanistan, Turkey,
and El Salvador earthquakes the matches between most of the wave
shapes were fairly close. One reason for that is the fact that
both the first and second earthquakes in each pair occurred when
the sun and moon were in roughly the same positions in the sky relative
to one another.
With both
of the India earthquake pairs some of the second earthquake
waves had inverted shapes compared with the first one. That
is partly because between the times when the two earthquakes in
each of those pairs occurred, the position of the moon in the sky
relative to the sun shifted about 180 longitude degrees. In
other words, when the first earthquake in each of those pairs occurred
the sun and the moon were close to one another in the sky.
And when the second one in each pair occurred the sun and the moon
were on opposites sides of the Earth.
As previously
mentioned, time lines based on the times when certain types
of earthquake precursors were detected can be used in place of
the first earthquake in those types of earthquake pairs. For
example, after using this Wave Chart technology to evaluate my
own precursor data going back months in time, on May 14, 2003 I circulated
a formal warning for a potentially destructive earthquake in the
Japan area. A likely looking date appeared to be May 16.
On May 26 a destructive earthquakes did occur in that area.
And quite a few people were reportedly injured.
Using The Wave Charts To Forecast Earthquake Aftershocks
The following is a simple procedure
for using the Wave Charts to forecast earthquake aftershocks. As
the previous drawing demonstrated, it works some of the time. It
can also be used to forecast some original earthquakes if the day that
a precursor signal is detected is substituted for the day of the first
earthquake.
A - 1 Become familiar with the Wave Charts, observations,
and theories discussed on the following Web page: Earthquake data for the years 1990 through
2005
A - 2 Download a copy of the following GIF file Wave Chart
or copy the chart from this html file.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05w.gif
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05w.html
A - 3 Load the GIF file into a drawing program such as
Microsoft "Paint."
A - 4 Draw a black vertical line on the Wave Chart for
the day when the original earthquake occurred.
A - 5 Use the date marker at the bottom of the Wave Chart
and draw vertical lines on the Wave Chart at about 7 day intervals as
shown in the following Wave Chart. In some cases an earthquake
aftershock will occur around the same day as indicated by one of the
blue, red, or orange color time lines.
Earthquake Data Fingerprints -
25 Hour Versus 30 Day Earthquake Triggering Time Cycles
The remaining
information on this Web page is not especially important to
understanding how to use the Wave Charts. It is being discussed
here in order to provide researchers with additional details regarding
earthquake triggering and forecasting processes. See Earthquake Data Fingerprints
for a more detailed explanation.
The Wave
Charts are picture type representations of a number of important
earthquake triggering time cycles which are each about 30 days in
length. Another and perhaps even more important earthquake
triggering time cycle is about 25 hours long. At the moment it
would be difficult to generate picture type representations for that
particular time cycle.
The following
table contains the 25 hour cycle data for the five earthquake
pairs shown in the previous chart. Most of the data refer
to things such as the longitudes of the positions of the sun and
the moon in the sky when the earthquakes occurred. With the
first group of numbers 0, 90, 180, or 270 degrees have been added to
the original longitude values so that they fall within a 0 to 90 degrees
range. That adjustment has to do with a type of earthquake longitude
symmetry effect. And it makes the data easier to evaluate.
The data
in the table which I usually focus on with my own earthquake
forecasting program have the codes ac, am, ci, la, and sa, with
ac and am being the most important. ac values are related
to the adjusted longitude of the "Gravity Point," the point on the
Earth’s surface where the combined gravitational pulls of the sun and
moon was strongest at the time when the earthquake occurred.
am refers to the adjusted moon longitude at that time. ci and
la refer to adjusted ocean tide crest and trough longitudes at the
time of the earthquake with the reference points used in the data generation
computer program being a location in the western Pacific Ocean and one
in the Los Angeles, California area. And sa refers to adjusted
Solid Earth Tide crest and trough longitudes at the time of the earthquake
with the reference point used in the data generation computer program being
0N and 75W.
More detailed
explanations for what the table data represent can be found
on the following Web pages: Key To The Table Abbreviations
Earthquake_Data_Fingerprints
UTC date sig aeql ac am
ci la sa t a g ag as ang emdist slat slon mlat
mlon clat clon glat glon
AFGHANISTAN
98/02/04
20 52 30 21 70 28 5 5 6 56
34 98 375865 16S 34W 13N 60E
6N 38E 5N 34E 1998/02/04 14:33:21
37N 70E 6.1 AFGHANISTAN
98/05/30
20 51 35 24 88 49 6 8 3 54
6 58 386428 21N 84E 15N 145E
19N 129E 20N 126E 1998/05/30 06:22:28 37N 70E
6.9 AFGHANISTAN
TURKEY
99/08/17
60 41 24 12 78 40 6 7 2 46
89 67 398715 13N 179W 7S 114W
2S 131W 0S 136W 1999/08/17 00:01:38 41N
30E 7.8 TURKEY
99/11/12
59 40 25 12 85 43 6 8 2 44
78 50 405203 17S 78W 21S 25W
22S 40W 22S 44W 1999/11/12 16:57:20 41N
31E 7.1 TURKEY
EL SALVADOR
01/01/13
89 4 26 16 83 38 4 3 8
0 81 -125 366941 21S 81W 8N 154E
0S 176E 2S 180E 2001/01/13 17:33:31 13N
89W 7.6 EL SALVADOR
01/02/13
89 30 53 43 16 68 4 4 5 24
32 -108 381416 13S 32W 10S 143W 16S 120W
17S 114W 2001/02/13 14:22:09 14N 89W 6.5 EL SALVADOR
INDIA
93/09/29
14 86 79 42 31 77 1 1 2
1 68 169 406128 2S 158W 2N 11E
2N 4E 2N 1W 1993/09/29
22:25:49 18N 76E 6.3 INDIA
93/11/12
14 40 45 16 88 41 8 9 7 39
26 -19 360154 18S 26W 16S 45W
16S 40W 16S 39W 1993/11/12 13:27:28 18N
77E 4.6 INDIA
INDIA
01/01/26
20 33 27 92 78 35 7 9 2 34
46 17 405981 18S 134E 17S 153E 18S
147E 18S 146E 2001/01/26 03:16:41 23N 70E
7.9 INDIA
01/02/08
20 59 63 41 23 66 3 1 9 58
70 -174 357474 14S 70W 15N 117E 15N 121E
15N 122E 2001/02/08 16:54:40 24N 70E 4.9 INDIA
As can be
seen, most of the ac, am, ci, la, and sa values for both earthquakes
in each of the Afghanistan and Turkey earthquake pairs are strikingly
similar. However, with the El Salvador and India earthquake
pairs those data are quite different.
What I have
found is that earthquakes occurring at about the same longitude
will often be linked with a somewhat limited number of sun and
moon longitude value groups like those. The values for the
times when a number of precursor signals were detected may be good
matches for the values associated with one earthquake such as that
first one in El Salvador. And the values for other precursor
signals detected around the same time may match those for a different
earthquake in the same area such as that second one in El Salvador.
With the
earthquake forecasting program I am running I watch for significant
looking Wave Chart and data table matches for precursor signals
and earthquakes. Data processing computer programs I have
developed are used to compare those types of longitude values etc.
for earthquakes and precursor signals going back to about 1993.
After evaluating
the Afghanistan earthquake data with an earlier version of my
forecasting program, on May 27, 1998 I posted an earthquake warning
note to the sci.geo.earthquakes Internet Newsgroup stating that
I was watching for earthquake activity possibly in Iran or Afghanistan
to occur by May 30, 1998. And on May 30 that second tremendously
destructive earthquake occurred in Afghanistan.
Many more of those 25 hour cycle data can be found on the following
Web pages:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/133.html
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/132.html
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