CHART  DATA  FOR  YEARS  2003  TO  2007

Latest Update:   April 6, 2007

EM Signal Longitude Versus Time      Recommendations For Researchers      How To Study The Chart Data

Understanding The Data In The Chart      Chart Data For Years 2003 To 2007      Observations And Theories

How The Chart Data Were Generated


EM  SIGNAL  LONGITUDE  VERSUS  TIME

       The chart on this Web page attempts to show how electromagnetic energy field fluctuation type signals (EM signals) are being generated days, weeks, and months before many and perhaps even most of our significant earthquakes occur.  The chart data are a graphical representation of the data displayed in tables stored on the Data.html Web page.

       Information regarding how the chart data were generated can be found in the How The Chart Data Were Generated section of this Web page.

RECOMMENDATIONS  FOR  RESEARCHERS

       Professional and amateur researchers should examine the chart and review the information in the Observations And Theories section of this Web page and attempt to gain some insight into how and why earthquakes occur and how they might be predicted.

       A number of significant earthquakes are presently listed on the chart.  Researchers should attempt to determine if other chart peaks match significant past earthquakes in their countries.  That could serve as an indicator that it might be possible to predict future earthquakes occurring in those areas.

       Observations and theories regarding what the chart data indicate are listed in the Observations And Theories sections of this Web page.  If other researchers contact me with information regarding earthquakes they are able to identify or theories regarding what the chart data might mean then I will attempt to add that information to this Web page.

HOW  TO  STUDY  THE  CHART  DATA

       The chart can probably be more easily studied if it is copied or saved as a GIF file and then loaded into a spreadsheet program.  An even better way of examining it might be to load the GIF file into a drawing, word processing, or spreadsheet computer program where its size can be adjusted.  A printed copy of the chart can then be produced and studied.

UNDERSTANDING  THE  DATA  IN  THE  CHART

       Briefly, the peaks on each chart line show the longitudes of past earthquakes which were good matches for as many as several hundred EM signals detected during a three month period of time prior to the time of the chart line.  Each line is offset from the line above it and the line below it by about 10 days.

       Peak height is probably related to a number of factors including earthquake magnitude, location, and depth, whether the earthquake occurred inland or out at sea, the type of fault zone, solar and geomagnetic storm intensities, and how many EM signal data points were collected during the three month time window.

       It is important to note that because of the way the chart data generation computer programs perform their calculations, if a powerful earthquake causes peaks to appear at some longitude such as 0E, then there will probably also be peaks at 0E + 90, 0E + 180, and 0E + 270 longitude degrees, or in this case 0E, 90W, 180E, and 90E.

       The longitudes of the earthquakes listed on the chart are designated with purple diamonds.  Longitudes 90, 180, and 270 degrees to the west of those longitudes are designated with small purple circles.  For one example, the devastating December 26, 2003 earthquake in Bam, Iran occurred at 58E longitude.  And there is a peak (and a purple diamond) at that longitude.  But at the same time there are significantly larger peaks (and a small purple circle) at 148E longitude (58E + 90 degrees).  (The lower diamond and circles on that line correspond to the December 22, 2003 earthquake in California.)

       Note also that because of the long (three months) signal averaging time windows being used, peaks can continue to appear for several weeks or months after the earthquake responsible for them has occurred.  The earthquake related EM signals may have abruptly stopped following the earthquake .  But it takes a while for all of signals to move out of the time windows.

CHART  DATA  FOR  YEARS  2003  TO  2007
2003-2007.gif

OBSERVATIONS  AND  THEORIES

Chart Peaks Are Pointing To Approaching Earthquakes  -  Some chart peaks are present at the same longitude for weeks or months at a time.  And that would indicate that the data are actually pointing to approaching earthquakes.  Each chart line can represent as many as several hundred EM signals collected at different times.  And if the signals were merely random events then those peaks would be distributed over a range of longitudes instead of located in the same area for such a long time.

EM Signals Are Being Generated Long Before Some Earthquakes Occur  -  The peaks associated with the November 15, 2006 Kuril Islands earthquake clearly show that EM signals are being generated for weeks and months before some earthquakes occur.  Those peaks began appearing in the chart in early August of 2006, three months before the earthquake.  At this time no determination has been made regarding whether or not any peaks were generated earlier in time such as six months or a year before that particular earthquake.

Some Peaks Might Be Pointing To Other Events  -  At this time it is not known what all of the peaks on the chart represent.  Some might be associated with other events such as EM signals linked with volcanic eruptions.

The Equation Used To Match EM Signals And Earthquakes Has Limitations  -  The How The Chart Data Were Generated section of this Web page explains that to generate the data points in the chart, EM signal times and earthquake occurrence times are compared using a complex equation.  Within that “working” equation, “weight factors” or importance values are assigned to the strengths of the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon as well as to certain types of Solid Earth and ocean tide information.  The same importance values are used for all of the EM signal – earthquake comparisons.

       With some and perhaps many earthquakes such as the November 15, 2006 Kuril Islands earthquake the equation appears to work well.  However some of my data suggest that with other earthquakes and perhaps EM signals, different weight factors or importance values should probably be used.  If the wrong values are in fact being used in those cases then that could conceivably cause the EM signals to appear to be good matches with the wrong earthquakes.  And peaks for the approaching earthquake would appear at the wrong longitude in the chart.  This potential source of errors needs to checked.  This would probably be a complex, time consuming, and difficult problem to correct.

There Are Few Or No Peaks Pointing To Some Significant Earthquakes  -  For reasons which are presently unknown there do not appear to be any strong peaks associated with some significant earthquakes which have occurred over the years.  That might have something to do with the conductivity of the fault zone rock layers or the absence of strong geomagnetic storm activity during the weeks before the earthquake.

The Catastrophic December 26, 2004 Indonesia Earthquake  -  One of the reasons there are no exceptionally strong peaks present at the time of that earthquake and the tsunami (tidal wave) that it produced could be because I was extremely busy around that time and did not have a chance to collect very many EM signal data.  Peak heights are dependent in part on the number of signals which are detected during a given period of time.

Fault Zone Strain Shifts Occurring Before An Earthquake  -  It is possible that before some earthquakes, strain can build at different times in different parts of a fault zone.  If that is in fact happening then there might be some indicators of such activity in the chart.  For example, over a several week or several month period of time the longitudes of certain chart peaks might shift slightly to the east or to the west.  However, it is important to note that such shifts might also be attributed to the way that the computer programs generate data.

Fault Zone Strain Shifts Occurring After An Earthquake  -  It is believed that when a powerful earthquake occurs, the abrupt movement of the tectonic plates can shift strain from the fault zone where it occurred to other fault zones.  If that is in fact happening then there might be some evidence of that in the chart.  There could be a dramatic and gradual or abrupt shift in the location of a group of peaks in the chart after a powerful earthquake occurs.  Abrupt shifts like that could not be attributed to the way that the computer programs generate data.

Accurate Earthquake Triggering Theory Model  -  The chart data were generated using an earthquake triggering model which is discussed on other Web pages at this Web site.  The fact that peaks can be found at the same longitude in the chart during several month periods of time and the fact that some of the peaks match the occurrence times of significant earthquakes indicate that the earthquake triggering theory model being used produces good results.  And it might even be providing us with an accurate picture of how a good percentage of our significant earthquakes are being triggered.

HOW  THE  CHART  DATA  WERE  GENERATED

       People who are serious about studying the chart on this Web page should also examine some of the other Web pages at this Web site.  Quite a few of them contain information regarding chart data generation processes.  The following is a brief summary of some of the more important points:

       EM signal duration times are usually between 0.25 and 20 seconds.  With such short duration times compared with the times associated with the buildup of  strain in fault zones and compared with Solid Earth and ocean tide related events and compared with celestial mechanics related events, the signals are ideal for data processing purposes.

       When an EM signal is detected its time is recorded.  And the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program which was developed during the past decade then compares that time with the times when the more than 40,000 earthquakes in my database file occurred.

       The earthquakes used to generate the research oriented chart on this Web page were mostly 5.0 and greater magnitude one which occurred between January 1, 1990 and March 5, 2007.  (Charts which are intended for earthquake forecasting purposes and which are based on the latest EM signals and earthquakes can be found on the Data.html Web page.)

       Each line on the chart on this Web page represents comparisons between a few dozen to several hundred EM signals detected during the three month period of time just before the time of the chart line, with all of those 40,000 + earthquakes.

       Each of those 40,000 + earthquakes is given a rating based on how well it matched a given EM signal.  The peaks on each line in the chart then show the longitudes of the roughly 100 to 200 earthquakes which were the best matches for all of the EM signals detected during that previously mentioned three month time window.

       When two or more of the earthquakes have the same longitude their rating values are added together resulting in a larger peak on the chart.

       A complex Perl computer language computer program was used to generate the ratings numbers.  That program is a highly advanced version of the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program which has been stored at this Web site.  A spreadsheet program was then used with those ratings numbers to generate the chart on this Web page.

       The Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program compares things such as the locations of the sun and the moon in the sky and the locations of Solid Earth and ocean tide crests and troughs around the world when EM signals were detected, with similar data for the times when the 40,000 + earthquakes occurred.

       As stated in the previous section of this report, the “weight factors” or importance values assigned to variables used in those comparisons might not be correct for some EM signal – earthquake comparisons.  And that could result in the EM signals pointing to the wrong earthquakes.  There are dozens of variables in the computer programs which might be optimized to produce more accurate and useful charts, and many additional variables which could be added to produce better results.

       EM signals associated with earthquakes occurring around the world were collected mostly at one location which is far from any known earthquake fault zone.  If EM signal data were collected at other locations around the globe then the chart data might be even better.

       The exact nature of the EM signals used to generate the chart is presently unknown even though the signals can be easily generated in the laboratory.  They might be very low frequency radio waves which can travel around the world with little attenuation and which are linked with both earthquake fault zone and geomagnetic and at times solar storm related activities.  It is possible that a good percentage of those signals are generated when the conductivity of a fault zone changes prior to an earthquake and energy stored in the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field near that area abruptly drains into the fault zone.


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This first version of this Web page was stored at this site on
March 28, 2007. Comments regarding this Web site are welcome.
Please send them to: seismic@ix.netcom.com The information in
this Web page represents expressions of personal opinion by
the Web page author. The address -URL- for this Web page is:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/2003-2007.html


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