EARTHQUAKE
AND TORNADO
DATA
EVALUATION COMPUTER PROGRAM
Part I - Latest News And Update: July
20, 2004
News: In a summary report dated July 20, 2004 for a Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) ON-LINE Conference this Web site was listed as a submitted example for how disaster mitigation information can be made available to governments and international disaster response groups. The information sharing concept behind this Web site was outlined in the following report: Using The Internet To Solve Health And Life Threatening Problems
Some Recent EM Signal - Earthquake Data
PART I
Latest News
Regarding The Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer
Program
Download The
Data Evaluation Program
Download
The Perl Language Program
Program Development
Efforts Status
Things Which Need
To Be Done
PART II
Introduction
Theories Behind
This Program
Earthquake
And Tornado Precursors (Warning Signals)
A Hypothetical
Example Of How The Program Works
Probability
Calculations
The Testdata.txt
Test Data Input File
Source Code
For The Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer
Program
PART III
Introduction
California
Earthquake
Technical Notes
Program Usage
Examples
LATEST NEWS REGARDING
THE EARTHQUAKE AND
TORNADO DATA EVALUATION
COMPUTER PROGRAM
A1. Tables and charts which show how the Earthquake
And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program rates matches between signals
detected during the last three months or so with the more than 20,000 earthquakes
in its database can now be found on the following Web page: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html The
table lists the 45 highest rated harmless earthquakes and the 45 highest
rated destructive ones.
A2. Beginning on May 20, 2004, reports discussing the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program were sent to government offices, disaster mitigation groups, and geophysical researchers around the world.
A3. The version of the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program that I myself am presently using is quite a bit more advanced than the download version stored at this Web site. It would be impossible to store copies of the newest versions at this Web site in part becasue the program is evolving on a daily basis.
A4. The program is also presently being used to compare past earthquakes and warning signals in efforts to learn how to best use it to process warning signal data. A number of checks have been run to see if it would have been able to detect the approach of the highly destructive December 26, 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake. With one of those checks, signals detected between November 1, 2003 and December 25, 2003 were compared with more than 20,000 earthquakes which occurred between January 1, 1990 and December 26, 2003. Results of the individual tests were then averaged together (the program can do that automatically). The earthquake which had the highest probability rating out of those more than 20,000 earthquakes was the following one:
1998/11/18 07:39:23 30.30N 57.50E 33.0 5.4 (NEIS data)
The deadly December 26, 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake occurred at the following location:
2003/12/26 01:56:52 29.00N 58.33E 10.0 6.6 Southeastern Iran
It appears to me that the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program did an excellent job of evaluating the warning signal data and determining where that catastrophic earthquake might occur. And it is unfortunate that it did not exist in its present form at the time of the earthquake.
A5. The following are the latest updates for the program
files, support data files, and documentation.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/311.zip
Latest update July 14, 2005
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/312.zip
Latest update April 18, 2004
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/313.zip
Latest update April 12, 2004
DOWNLOAD THE
EARTHQUAKE AND TORNADO DATA
EVALUATION COMPUTER
PROGRAM AND ITS SUPPORT FILES
B1. Download the following zip files which contain the Earthquake
And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program and its support
data files. Updates for the 311.html and 312.html files
might be available every few weeks. The 313.html file
will probably need to be downloaded only once.
B1a. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/311.zip That file contains the data evaluation program, the testdata file which is used to send the data evaluation program test and settings information, and documentation files. These files will probably be evolving fairly rapidly. ~ It is presently about 100,000 bytes in size.
B1b. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/312.zip This file contains the earthquake and warning signal database for the years 1990 to the present. It will probably be updated once every few weeks. ~ 1,000,000 bytes
B1c. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/313.zip This file contains sun, moon, ocean tide, and Solid Earth Tide reference data for the year 2004. It will probably never need to be updated. ~ 4,000,000 bytes
B2. Choose an existing directory on your computer for the program or create a new directory. Any directory can be used. However it is probably best not to use one which contains important Windows programs or the Perl language program directory etc. The version of the data evaluation program in the zip file has been preset to run in a directory called C:\ETDPROG
B3. Unzip those three files and store the unzipped files in the directory you have chosen.
B4. Use a text editor to examine the unzipped ReadMe files which
contain instructions for how to run adjust the settings
for the data evaluation program, how to use the testdata.txt
file, and how to interpret the data that the program generates.
DOWNLOAD AND INSTALL THE PERL LANGUAGE PROGRAM
C1. Access the following Perl program download Web site and select
the appropriate version of Perl for your computer
and operating system:
C1a. http://www.activestate.com/Products/Download/Download.plex?id=ActivePerl
C2. Download and install Perl. I myself downloaded and installed the Windows 5.8.2 MSI version which was about 12 million bytes in size in a zip file form. It took just a few minutes to install.
C3. Run some of the Perl demonstration programs contained in various Perl subdirectories to confirm that Perl is operating properly.
C4. See the following Web page for more information regarding the
Perl computer language.
C4a. Basic Perl Commands http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Perl.html
PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT STATUS
D1. The full sized vesion of this program is now available
as a download from this Web site.
D2. A standalone Basic program has been developed
for generating subsolar and sublunar latitudes and longitudes. It
is not yet linked with the main program. When it has been it
will replace the very large 313.zip file which presently contains
those types of data.
D3. A formal copyright application for the
Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program was submitted
to the U.S. Copyright Office in early 2004.
D4. The earthquake
and tornado data evaluation and Wave Chart technologies
discussed at this Web site were the subject of a formal presentation
made at a technical conference held in the People's Republic
of China in late December of 2003.
E1. More Sophisticated Data Evaluation Routines
This program provides researchers with a type of earthquake and tornado data evaluation tool or foundation to which they can add virtually unlimited numbers of increasingly sophisticated, accurate, and reliable earthquake, tornado, and warning signal data evaluation procedures. For example, I created the “Longitude related number” formula discussed in Part II of this report and assigned weights to the different longitude comparison tests based on simple observations of how the data that I am working with look. No substantial statistical tests have yet been run to determine what formula, what weight values, and even what types of tests should be used. And the same formula, weights, and tests are presently used to compare longitudes for every warning signal and every earthquake. However I would expect that earthquakes occurring in fault zones pointing north and south should be evaluated using a different formula and different weight and tests than ones occurring in fault zones running east and west. And the same would be true for earthquakes involving tectonic plates which are attempting to slip sideways past one another versus ones where one plate is being pushed beneath the other and towards the center of the Earth.
The program uses adjusted, computer generated ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide crest and trough locations. Data need to be studied which involve actual bending, stretching, and compression forces in different fault zones.
E2. Data Generation Subroutines
A standalone Basic program has been created
which generates the types of data contained in the very large 313.zip
file. It will be linked with the main program and replace that
313.zip file as soon as time permits.
Other data generation subroutines such as ones which generate ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide data should also be added to the program.
E3. Computer Operating System Interface
An active interface should be created and added to the program. At the moment program data are stored in files. And the program is then told to begin running. When it is done with all of its calculations the results are displayed in tables which have been stored in text files. With an active interface the program would be running all the time. And data would be constantly updated and displayed on the computer screen.
With such an interface the values of different variables such as weight factors could be increased or decreased by pressing assigned computer keys rather than by storing the numbers in the testdata.txt file and then telling the program to begin another run. That would make it much easier to see what happens to the output data when a given variable changes.
An active interface would also make it easier to display output data using interactive charts, plots, or graphs rather than only text file tables.
E4. Incorporation Of The Wave Chart Technology
That technology is discussed in detail on the following Web page:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html
The Wave Charts are graphs which show how forces and phenomena such as the strength of the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon change with time. Earthquake and warning signal times are added to the graphs as vertical lines. And it can be seen how different forces etc. might have triggered that particular earthquake or how they might have caused a warning signal to be generated. That information can be helpful to both research efforts and efforts to tell when and where some expected earthquake is going to occur.
This earthquake and tornado data evaluation program needs to be expanded so that it will generate the Wave Chart graphs. At the moment they are being generated through the use of an enormous spreadsheet program.
The full earthquake database file contains
records of 5.0 and greater magnitude earthquakes going back to the beginning
of 1990. Each earthquake is represented by one line of data in the
file. And each line contains a column for data regarding how many fatalities
the earthquake produced, if any, how many injuries it produced, and how many
buildings it damaged or destroyed.
Those types of data are available in reports stored at
the following Web site:
Significant Earthquakes Of The World
http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/significant.html
My database contains those
types of data for the years 2002 and 2003 and for especially destructive
earthquakes which occurred since the beginning of 1990. Those
data need to be extracted from files for other years and added to the main
earthquake database file.
E6. Earthquake Precursor Data Collection Web Site
A Web site needs to be created where earthquake and tornado precursor related CGI programs can be run. People around the world would submit their precursor data to the site by e-mail or by visiting the Web site and using a data entry screen. Researchers around the world would then visit the site and examine and evaluate the precursor data stored there.
The following Web page demonstrates what might be displayed at such a Web site:
A Demonstration Earthquake Prediction Program
http://home.netcom.com/~edgrsprj/124.html
Return
To EQ-Forecasting Homepage
This first version
of this Web page was stored at this site on
April 8, 2004. Comments
regarding this Web site are welcome.
Please send them
to: seismic@ix.netcom.com
The information in
this Web page represents
expressions of personal opinion by
the Web page author.
The address -URL- for this Web page is:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html
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