EARTHQUAKE AND TORNADO
DATA EVALUATION COMPUTER PROGRAM

Part I   -   Latest News And Update:   July 20, 2004

News:  In a summary report dated July 20, 2004 for a Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) ON-LINE Conference this Web site was listed as a submitted example for how disaster mitigation information can be made available to governments and international disaster response groups.  The information sharing concept behind this Web site was outlined in the following report:  Using The Internet To Solve Health And Life Threatening Problems

Some Recent EM Signal - Earthquake Data


PART  I
Latest News Regarding The Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program
Download The Data Evaluation Program
Download The Perl Language Program
Program Development Efforts Status
Things Which Need To Be Done

PART  II
Introduction
Theories Behind This Program
Earthquake And Tornado Precursors (Warning Signals)
A Hypothetical Example Of How The Program Works
Probability Calculations
The Testdata.txt Test Data Input File
Source Code For The Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program

PART  III
Introduction
California Earthquake
Technical Notes
Program Usage Examples

LATEST  NEWS  REGARDING  THE  EARTHQUAKE  AND
TORNADO  DATA  EVALUATION  COMPUTER  PROGRAM

A1.  Tables and charts which show how the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program rates matches between signals detected during the last three months or so with the more than 20,000 earthquakes in its database can now be found on the following Web page:  http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html  The table lists the 45 highest rated harmless earthquakes and the 45 highest rated destructive ones.

A2.  Beginning on May 20, 2004, reports discussing the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program were sent to government offices, disaster mitigation groups, and geophysical researchers around the world.

A3.   The version of the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program that I myself am presently using is quite a bit more advanced than the download version stored at this Web site.  It would be impossible to store copies of the newest versions at this Web site in part becasue the program is evolving on a daily basis.

A4.  The program is also presently being used to compare past earthquakes and warning signals in efforts to learn how to best use it to process warning signal data.  A number of checks have been run to see if it would have been able to detect the approach of the highly destructive December 26, 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake.  With one of those checks, signals detected between November 1, 2003 and December 25, 2003 were compared with more than 20,000 earthquakes which occurred between January 1, 1990 and December 26, 2003.  Results of the individual tests were then averaged together (the program can do that automatically).  The earthquake which had the highest probability rating out of those more than 20,000 earthquakes was the following one:

1998/11/18  07:39:23 30.30N 57.50E 33.0 5.4      (NEIS data)

The deadly December 26, 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake occurred at the following location:

2003/12/26  01:56:52 29.00N 58.33E 10.0 6.6 Southeastern Iran

       It appears to me that the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program did an excellent job of evaluating the warning signal data and determining where that catastrophic earthquake might occur.  And it is unfortunate that it did not exist in its present form at the time of the earthquake.

A5.  The following are the latest updates for the program files, support data files, and documentation.
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/311.zip    Latest update   July 14, 2005
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/312.zip    Latest update April 18, 2004
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/313.zip    Latest update April 12, 2004


DOWNLOAD  THE  EARTHQUAKE  AND  TORNADO DATA
EVALUATION  COMPUTER  PROGRAM  AND  ITS  SUPPORT  FILES

B1.  Download the following zip files which contain the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program and its support data files.  Updates for the 311.html and 312.html files might be available every few weeks.  The 313.html file will probably need to be downloaded only once.

B1a.  http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/311.zip    That file contains the data evaluation program, the testdata file which is used to send the data evaluation program test and settings information, and documentation files.  These files will probably be evolving fairly rapidly.  ~ It is presently about 100,000 bytes in size.

B1b.  http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/312.zip    This file contains the earthquake and warning signal database for the years 1990 to the present.  It will probably be updated once every few weeks.  ~ 1,000,000 bytes

B1c.  http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/313.zip   This file contains sun, moon, ocean tide, and Solid Earth Tide reference data for the year 2004.  It will probably never need to be updated.  ~ 4,000,000 bytes

B2.  Choose an existing directory on your computer for the program or create a new directory.  Any directory can be used.  However it is probably best not to use one which contains important Windows programs or the Perl language program directory etc.  The version of the data evaluation program in the zip file has been preset to run in a directory called C:\ETDPROG

B3.  Unzip those three files and store the unzipped files in the directory you have chosen.

B4.  Use a text editor to examine the unzipped ReadMe files which contain instructions for how to run adjust the settings for the data evaluation program, how to use the testdata.txt file, and how to interpret the data that the program generates.

DOWNLOAD  AND  INSTALL  THE  PERL  LANGUAGE  PROGRAM

C1.  Access the following Perl program download Web site and select the appropriate version of Perl for your computer and operating system:
C1a.  http://www.activestate.com/Products/Download/Download.plex?id=ActivePerl

C2.  Download and install Perl.  I myself downloaded and installed the Windows 5.8.2 MSI version which was about 12 million bytes in size in a zip file form.  It took just a few minutes to install.

C3.  Run some of the Perl demonstration programs contained in various Perl subdirectories to confirm that Perl is operating properly.

C4.  See the following Web page for more information regarding the Perl computer language.
C4a.  Basic Perl Commands  http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Perl.html


PROGRAM  DEVELOPMENT  EFFORT  STATUS

D1.  The full sized vesion of this program is now available as a download from this Web site.

D2.  A standalone Basic program has been developed for generating subsolar and sublunar latitudes and longitudes.  It is not yet linked with the main program.  When it has been it will replace the very large 313.zip file which presently contains those types of data.

D3.  A formal copyright application for the Earthquake And Tornado Data Evaluation Computer Program was submitted to the U.S. Copyright Office in early 2004.

D4.  The earthquake and tornado data evaluation and Wave Chart technologies discussed at this Web site were the subject of a formal  presentation made at a technical conference held in the People's Republic of China in late December of 2003.


THINGS  WHICH  NEED  TO  BE  DONE

E1.  More Sophisticated Data Evaluation Routines

       This program provides researchers with a type of earthquake and tornado data evaluation tool or foundation to which they can add virtually unlimited numbers of increasingly sophisticated, accurate, and reliable earthquake, tornado, and warning signal data evaluation procedures.  For example, I created the “Longitude related number” formula discussed in Part II of this report and assigned weights to the different longitude comparison tests based on simple observations of how the data that I am working with look.  No substantial statistical tests have yet been run to determine what formula, what weight values, and even what types of tests should be used.  And the same formula, weights, and tests are presently used to compare longitudes for every warning signal and every earthquake.  However I would expect that earthquakes occurring in fault zones pointing north and south should be evaluated using a different formula and different weight and tests than ones occurring in fault zones running east and west.  And the same would be true for earthquakes involving tectonic plates which are attempting to slip sideways past one another versus ones where one plate is being pushed beneath the other and towards the center of the Earth.

       The program uses adjusted, computer generated ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide crest and trough locations.  Data need to be studied which involve actual bending, stretching, and compression forces in different fault zones.

E2.  Data Generation Subroutines

       A standalone Basic program has been created which generates the types of data contained in the very large 313.zip file.  It will be linked with the main program and replace that 313.zip file as soon as time permits.

       Other data generation subroutines such as ones which generate ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide data should also be added to the program.

E3.  Computer Operating System Interface

       An active interface should be created and added to the program.  At the moment program data are stored in files.  And the program is then told to begin running.  When it is done with all of its calculations the results are displayed in tables which have been stored in text files.  With an active interface the program would be running all the time.  And data would be constantly updated and displayed on the computer screen.

       With such an interface the values of different variables such as weight factors could be increased or decreased by pressing assigned computer keys rather than by storing the numbers in the testdata.txt file and then telling the program to begin another run.  That would make it much easier to see what happens to the output data when a given variable changes.

       An active interface would also make it easier to display output data using interactive charts, plots, or graphs rather than only text file tables.

E4.  Incorporation Of The Wave Chart Technology

That technology is discussed in detail on the following Web page:

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html

       The Wave Charts are graphs which show how forces and phenomena such as the strength of the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon change with time.  Earthquake and warning signal times are added to the graphs as vertical lines.  And it can be seen how different forces etc. might have triggered that particular earthquake or how they might have caused a warning signal to be generated.  That information can be helpful to both research efforts and efforts to tell when and where some expected earthquake is going to occur.

       This earthquake and tornado data evaluation program needs to be expanded so that it will generate the Wave Chart graphs.  At the moment they are being generated through the use of an enormous spreadsheet program.

E.5  Expansion Of The Earthquake Database File

       The full earthquake database file contains records of 5.0 and greater magnitude earthquakes going back to the beginning of 1990.  Each earthquake is represented by one line of data in the file.  And each line contains a column for data regarding how many fatalities the earthquake produced, if any, how many injuries it produced, and how many buildings it damaged or destroyed.

Those types of data are available in reports stored at the following Web site:

Significant Earthquakes Of The World
http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/significant.html

       My database contains those types of data for the years 2002 and 2003 and for especially destructive earthquakes which occurred since the beginning of 1990.  Those data need to be extracted from files for other years and added to the main earthquake database file.

E6.  Earthquake Precursor Data Collection Web Site

       A Web site needs to be created where earthquake and tornado precursor related CGI programs can be run.  People around the world would submit their precursor data to the site by e-mail or by visiting the Web site and using a data entry screen.  Researchers around the world would then visit the site and examine and evaluate the precursor data stored there.

The following Web page demonstrates what might be displayed at such a Web site:

A Demonstration Earthquake Prediction Program
http://home.netcom.com/~edgrsprj/124.html


Return To EQ-Forecasting Homepage
This first version of this Web page was stored at this site on
April 8, 2004. Comments regarding this Web site are welcome.
Please send them to: seismic@ix.netcom.com The information in
this Web page represents expressions of personal opinion by
the Web page author. The address -URL- for this Web page is:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html


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