MATCHES BETWEEN ELECTROMAGNETIC SIGNALS AND PAST EARTHQUAKES
Latest Update: December 31, 2009
Chart A is usually updated several times a week.
Chart A is now a PNG picture file instead of JPG.
Chart A earthquake forecasting data are being discussed in notes posted to the EarthWaves Internet Bulletin Board under the heading "EQF"
Etdprog.zip.1.B.3.2009/03/05 - Meteoquake Site
Etdprog.zip.1.B.3.2009/03/05 - EarthWaves Site
is presently available for downloads.
The Etdprog.exe Earthquake Forecasting Computer Program Web Page The Year Charts Web Page
HOW TO INTERPRET THE ETDPROG.EXE PROGRAM'S CHARTS, MAPS, AND REPORTS
The EQ Forecasting Meteoquake Web Site The EQ Forecasting Freewebz Web Site The Meteoquake Web Site Earthquake Forecasting Resources
This Web page has two main purposes. First, it is intended to provide site visitors with data that they will hopefully be able to use to detect the approach of some significant earthquakes. Second, it is intended to provide earthquake researchers with data that they can use in order to learn more about how earthquakes are being triggered and how strain is moving around within the Earth’s crust as earthquakes occur around the world.
There are a number of scroll windows on this Web page. Site visitors can use them to examine the Web site charts and compare data on one Chart with data on others. Full size versions of some of the Charts can also be found at the bottom of the Web Page.
People who know how to work with HTML code should be able to easily create their own scroll windows for displaying the Charts. Site visitors can also try contacting me at seismic@ix.netcom.com to recommend that some other size or content scroll window be added to this Web page.
HOW TO INTERPRET THIS WEB PAGE'S CHART DATA
FULL SIZE VERSIONS OF SOME OF THE CHARTS DISPLAYED IN THE SCROLLING WINDOWS
A LIST OF THE SCROLL
WINDOWS ON THIS WEB PAGE
A window that displays two high resolution scroll windows and a large scroll window
A
window that displays four single line scroll windows, a large scroll window,
another single line scroll window, and a large scroll window on the bottom.
This and the above window should be the two most useful windows on this
Web page.
A small size window that displays a single scroll window
A window that displays a single very large scroll window
This Web site has a limited download capacity. So most of these Charts have been stored on a different Web server. That server is running most of the time. When it is not, most of the charts will not display.
Each of the scrolling windows on this Web page will display quite a few Charts that appear one beneath the other as the window is scrolled. Those Charts include the following ones:
CHART A - The latest Averaged EM Signal Time Window Chart that contains 14 time data lines. Line #1 represents fifteen day's worth of EM Signals averaged together ending with the date on the left side of the line. Line #2 represents fourty-five day's worth of EM Signals averaged together. And Lines 3 through 14 represent three month's worth of EM Signals averaged together ending with the date on the left of each line. For earthquake forecasters, Chart-A is the most important of the Charts on this Web page.
CHARTS B, C, D, E, F, G - Six Charts that contain data lines for recent powerful and significant earthquakes and high intensity EM Signals. The signals are shown with the code "em #" (ex. em 8). The # indicates the strength of the signal based on a somewhat arbitrary linear scale. Low intensity EM Signals are not being individually displayed on this Web page because there are too many of them to display. And they are not as significant as the high intensity signals. Earthquake forecasters can examine those individual EM Signal lines and try to determine if they might be indicating that an earthquake is approaching.
EARTHQUAKES 1, 2, 3, 4 - Four Charts that contain data lines for powerful earthquakes going back to late 1989. Many of those earthquakes were highly destructive. Some of the scrolling windows can be used to compare those data lines with any of the other Chart data lines.
Year Charts for the years 2001 through 2009. Each of those Year Charts shows the Averaged EM Signal data lines for EM Signals that were detected during that year plus overlaps of about four months before and after the year.
Scroll bars on the right side of the scroll windows can be used for scrolling. With one or more of the windows there is also a scroll bar on the bottom. With certain Web browsers such as Microsoft Internet Explorer viewers can click on the data lines inside the scroll window and then use the Up and Down Arrow keys and the Page Up and Page Down keys to scroll the window. With some browsers the scroll windows might not work too well. For those browsers, researchers might want to create their own scroll windows.
After the data lines have been displayed in a scroll window, a "Print Screen" can be Copied to the clipboard and then Pasted to a graphics program such as Windows Paint. Vertical longitude lines etc. can then be manually added to the Chart to better determine the exact longitudes of peaks on the data lines.
TWO HIGH RESOLUTION SCROLL WINDOWS and
A LARGE SCROLL WINDOW
See the above list for an explanation of what each of the Charts in the scroll window represents. The Averaged EM Signal data lines on Chart A (the top Chart with the Line Number, Month, Date, and Year on the left side) should be the most important for earthquake forecasters. The two upper high resolution windows make it easier to scroll through the Charts and match the line peaks with the longitude bars.
FOUR SINGLE LINE SCROLL WINDOWS ON THE TOP,
A LARGE SCROLL WINDOW,
ANOTHER SINGLE LINE SCROLL WINDOW, and
A LARGE SCROLL WINDOW ON THE BOTTOM
This and the above window should be the two most useful scroll windows.
The top four single line scroll windows can be used to compare multiple earthquake and EM Signal lines with one another. For example, the data lines for the two destructive 1998 Afghanistan earthquakes or the two destructive 1999 Turkey earthquakes can be compared.
With the bottom three scroll windows, a destructive earthquake data line can be displayed in the single scroll window second from the bottom. The larger scroll window above that one can then be set to display Year Chart lines for Averaged EM Signal Time Windows after the earthquake occurred. And the bottom scroll window can be set to display Year Chart lines for time windows before it occurred. That can indicate if the time window lines were good matches for the earthquake. The 2003r Year Chart provides an example of this with the destructive December 22, 2003 earthquake in the San Francisco, California, USA area.
A SINGLE SMALL SIZE SCROLL WINDOW
TWO LARGE SCROLL WINDOWS ON THE BOTTOM and
A HIGH RESOLUTION SCROLL WINDOW ON THE TOP
A SINGLE VERY LARGE SCROLL WINDOW
HOW TO INTERPRET THE CHARTS ON THIS WEB PAGE
The Charts on this Web page contain data generated by an advanced version of the Etdprog.exe Earthquake and Tornado Data evaluation computer PROGram.
Most of the Chart lines represent comparisons the program made between what are believed to be earthquake fault zone activity related electromagnetic energy field pulses (EM Signals) with more than 50,000 earthquakes that have occurred since the beginning of 1990.
The EM Signals usually have duration times of 0.25 seconds to 20 seconds. Present theories propose that they are fluctuations in the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field. Multiple frequencies are involved, perhaps in the range of around 5 cycles per second up to 7000 or so cycles per second. The signals can be easily detected around the world.
--- Most of the averaged EM Signal Time Window data lines on Chart-A and all of the lines on each of the Year Charts represent three month's worth of those EM Signal – earthquake comparisons averaged together for the time period ending on the date of the line.
--- Lines 1 & 2 on Chart-A represent shorter length time windows. Line #1 represents fifteen day's worth of EM Signals averaged together. And Line #2 represents fourty-five day's worth of EM Signals averaged together. Those shorter time windows make it possible to see where the most recent EM Signals might be pointing. Lines 3 through 14 are influenced by EM Signals that are as much as three months old.
--- Some of the Chart lines represent those types of comparisons between individual earthquakes and those more than 50,000 past earthquakes.
Where there is a peak at some longitude on one of the Chart lines it means that the Etdprog.exe program determined that the EM Signal or averaged signals, or earthquake associated with that Chart line was a good match for earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude.
When those averaged time window peaks start appearing at a longitude on a Chart line it can serve as an indicator that a fault zone somewhere along that longitude line could be causing the EM Signals to be generated. And at times that could be a sign of approaching seismic activity in that fault zone. People might want to check areas along that longitude line for the presence of easily observed earthquake precursors. A list of precursors might include things such as large, fresh cracks in building foundations, abrupt changes in well and ground water levels, excessive noise on radio and television transmissions, Earthquake Clouds, unusual behavior by wild, farm, zoo, and pet animals, and reports that large numbers of people living in the area are complaining about strong headaches and other medical problems. Those precursors could be indicators that seismic activity is in fact approaching.
A list of earthquake precursors can usually be found somewhere on one of the International Society For Earthquake Precursors Web pages. http://www.isfep.com
It should be noted that the technology associated with these Charts is still in an early stage of development. And Chart data are presently being evaluated in efforts to determine exactly what they are indicating. For reasons that are not yet clearly understood, peaks can appear at some longitude and there will not be an earthquake at that longitude. Or, the earthquake might not occur for months. When an earthquake is approaching, peaks can appear at some longitude other than the one where it is going to occur. And significant earthquakes can occur without any peaks ever appearing at any longitude on the Charts.
There are three fairly simple procedures that Web site visitors can use to determine if Chart data might have been indicating that an earthquake was approaching.
Longitude Peak Location - There might be peaks on the Averaged EM Signal data lines at the longitude of a significant earthquake for weeks or months before it occurs. And they shift to other longitudes on the lines immediately or several weeks after it occurs.
The 2003r Year Chart provides an example of this with the destructive December 22, 2003 earthquake in the San Francisco, California, USA area. It can also be seen to a lesser extent with the destructive December 26, 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake.
Because of the way the Etdprog.exe computer program does its probability calculations, those peaks can at times be exactly 90 or 180 longitude degrees to the east or west of the actual earthquake longitude.
Line Structure Similarities - When the second from the top viewer is used to compare a single earthquake line with Year Chart lines for times before and after the earthquake, the structures of the data lines before the earthquake occurs might match the structure of the earthquake line even though there might not be any peaks on the lines at the longitude where the earthquake actually occurred.
The 2003r Year Chart also provides an example of that line structure similarity with that destructive California earthquake.
Longitude Peak Shifts - The locations of peaks on the Averaged EM Signal data lines might shift to other longitudes shortly after the earthquake occurs. Those peaks might not be anywhere near the earthquake’s actual longitude. But the fact that they shifted their positions on the lines after the earthquake might be indicating that the earlier peaks were linked with the approaching earthquake. And after it occurred, strain shifted from its fault zone to other fault zones.
The peak heights on the Database Earthquakes line at the bottom of some of the Charts indicates how many of the 50,000 earthquakes in the comparison database file occurred at that longitude.
See the Year_Charts.html Web page for more detailed discussions of the Charts.
The first Chart below displays fourteen Averaged EM Signal Time Window data lines starting with the present and going back several months in time. The Time Windows are offset from one another by ten days. This is the most important Chart for earthquake forecasters.
When a peak is observed at some longitude on the most recent Time Window lines it could be an indicator that a fault zone along that longitude line has become active. And an earthquake could occur there at some time in the future.
The scroll windows on this Web page can be used to determine if peaks at different longitudes on earlier Time Window lines on this Chart were good matches with the longitudes of recent powerful earthquakes. Much earlier Time Window lines going back to the beginning of 2001 can be found on the Year Charts.
The following six Charts display the results of comparisons between individual high intensity EM Signals or recent powerful and significant earthquakes, with more than 50,000 earthquakes that occurred since the beginning of 1990. EM Signal lines display "em" followed by a number. The number is intended as a somewhat arbitrary indicator of the signal intensity using a linear scale of 1 to 9. 9 is the value for the highest intensity signals.
Where there is a peak on one of the lines it means that the Etdprog.exe computer program determined that the EM Signal or earthquake associated with that line was a good match with some earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude.
One of the fairly strong EM Signals was detected twelve minutes before the extremely powerful Samoa Islands earthquake that occurred on September 29, 2009. The data line for that signal is located just below the one for the earthquake.
The following four Charts display the results of comparisons between powerful earthquakes, most of which were destructive, with more than 50,000 earthquakes that occurred since the beginning of 1990.
Where there is a peak on one of the lines it means that the Etdprog.exe computer program determined that the earthquake associated with that line was a good match with some earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude.
In theory, with each of the earthquakes there should be a strong peak present on its data line at the longitude where it occurred. But because of the somewhat random way in which earthquakes are triggered that is observed only some of the time.
The scrolling windows on this Web page can be used to compare these earthquakes with the Averaged EM Signals Time Window in the Year Chart files and with the individual EM Signals in the above Charts.
Note how similar the data lines for the two destructive 1998 earthquakes in Afghanistan are with one another, and how very similar the lines for the two destructive 1999 Turkey earthquakes are with one another.
Return
To EQ-Forecasting Homepage
This first version of this Web page was
stored at this site on
June 28, 2004. Comments regarding this Web site are
welcome.
Please send them to: seismic@ix.netcom.com The information in
this Web
page represents expressions of personal opinion by
the Web page author. The
address -URL- for this Web page is:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
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