AN  ELECTROMAGNETIC  SIGNAL  TYPE  EARTHQUAKE  PRECURSOR

A  CUSTOM  BUILT  DETECTOR  FOR  MONITORING  THAT  PRECURSOR

THE  DETECTION  OF  THE  PRECURSOR  BEFORE  THE  MAY  12,  2008  WENCHUAN,  CHINA  EARTHQUAKE

Latest Update:  March 3, 2010

The above image is Yang’s oscilloscope trace of an
earthquake precursor signal recorded two hours before
the Guizhou Weining, China earthquake that occurred
at 12:41:49 on 2009-1-17 (GMT).  The signal was
recorded on both of the oscilloscope’s channels.

THE  INFORMATION  ON  THIS  WEB  PAGE

THIS WEB PAGE DISCUSSES AN UNUSUAL ELECTROMAGNETIC ENERGY FIELD TYPE EARTHQUAKE
PRECURSOR SIGNAL AND A RELATIVELY NEW DEVICE FOR DETECTING THAT SIGNAL.

       Roughly 30 earthquake precursor signals detected by Yang during the past few years were compared with my own precursor signals (E.D.G.).  And it is my opinion that a good percentage of both his and my signals were likely pointing to the approach of the same earthquakes or volcanic activity even though these signals were detected by people living on opposite sides of the planet.

       It is my conclusion from those data analyses that Yang’s detector might represent a significant breakthrough for the science of earthquake forecasting and, hopefully, a possible doorway to the future for generating accurate and reliable earthquake predictions.

       This Web page discussion is an extensively modified and expanded version of a presentation that was made by Yang and two other researchers at the VESTO Earthquake Forecasting Conference held on the Nishi-Chiba Campus, Chiba University, Japan on March 26 – 28, 2009.  http://www-es.s.chiba-u.ac.jp/geoph/ulf/vesto/

Those three researchers live in the People’s Republic of China.  They are:

Zhi-min, Yang  -  Independent Researcher

Yan-hao, Sun  -  Shenzhen Lionik Industrial Co., Ltd

Chen I-wan  -  Advisor to the China Geophysics
Society’s Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction

       This Web page discussion does not attempt to prove that these precursor signals are reliable indicators of approaching seismic activity or that the new detector actually works.  It is simply intended to provide site visitors with a somewhat informal discussion of basic information regarding the signals and the detector.  The Chinese alphanumeric characters in the original presentation’s figures have not been translated for example.  Some of the opinions and data on this Web page are from the Web page owner E.D.G. rather than the original researchers.

       Site visitors who would like additional information on the detector or the precursor signals can try contacting me (E.D.G.) at seismic@ix.netcom.com   And I should be able to help them contact one or more of the presentation’s original authors for that information.

Abstract:  In the original VESTO Conference presentation Zhi-min, Yang, described a low frequency electromagnetic earthquake precursor that can be monitored with his custom built detection system.  And he stated that he has observed that some earthquake sensitive persons can also “hear” (or perhaps “feel”) the earthquake precursor being monitored.  It is my own rough estimate that perhaps one person in a thousand is strongly earthquake sensitive.

       This precursor signal is frequently referred to as an “Ear Tone.”  The detector will usually record the signal at the same time that an Ear Tone is heard.  Among other things this Web page report will discuss that precursor signal’s detection before the following highly destructive Wenchuan (Sichuan) earthquake.

2008/05/12 06:28:02 30.98N 103.32E  19 7.9 Eastern Sichuan, China
U.S. National Earthquake Information Service Data

       See Earthquake  Triggering, Earthquake  Precursor  Signal  Generation, And  Earthquake  Sensitivity  Theory  Pictures for information regarding these precursor signals, Ear Tones, and Human Earthquake Sensitivity.

SOME  INFORMATION  REGARDING  THESE  PRECURSOR
SIGNALS  AND  YANG’S  CUSTOM  BUILT  DETECTOR

The Nature Of The Precursor Signals  -  Relatively little is presently known about the nature of these earthquake precursor signals or how they are being generated.  I myself believe that they are electromagnetic signals, something like radio waves.  They might be associated with fluctuations in the Earth’s geomagnetic energy field.  Yang’s detector cannot detect infrasound.  Therefore, the precursor signals being monitored could not be infrasound signals.

Signal Frequency  -  The frequency of the precursor signal that Yang is monitoring is believed to be in the 10 – 50 Hz (cycles per second) range.

Signal Duration  -  The signals usually have durations times of 5 - 15 seconds.

The Distance The Signals Can Travel  -  It is believed that that these signals can at times be detected more than ten thousand kilometers from the earthquake fault zones responsible for them.

The Medium The Signals Travel Within  -  The detector appears to be detecting signals that are traveling through the Earth’s atmosphere.  And so it does not need to have any electrodes etc. placed in the ground.

The Success Rate With Detecting Approaching Earthquakes With Yang’s Detector  -  Yang believes that his detector might be capable of detecting the approach of as many as 60% of the high magnitude earthquakes that are occurring around the world.  Based on my own data compared with those of Yang, I believe that the detector might be able to detect the approach of perhaps 80% of the 6.0 and higher magnitude earthquakes occurring within perhaps 100 kilometers of the detector’s physical location.

Detector Size  -  The entire system could probably fit on a laboratory bench.  A typical size for the detector itself might be a box perhaps a half meter in length, width, and height.  The electronics might be the size of several laptop computers.

Detector Cost  -  As of March, 2010, a very rough cost estimate for the custom built detection system would be somewhere around $2000 US.  I myself believe that refinements and mass-production procedures would undoubtedly improve the system’s performance and reduce its price.

Additional Information  -  As far as I am aware, Yang has not yet published any formal technical papers on his new detector.  And he is not presently publicly circulating precursor signal detection time information or earthquake forecasts.

SOME  INFORMATION  REGARDING  SEVERAL
APPROACHING  EARTHQUAKES  THAT  WERE  DETECTED
THROUGH  THE  USE  OF  YANG’S  CUSTOM  BUILT  DETECTOR

       The following data were supplied by Yang and his associates.  They are intended for general information purposes and are not intended to actually prove that the detector works or provide an accurate picture of its capabilities or limitations.

      In the middle of March 2008, for a number of days between 11:00-13:00 local time, at observation location E:105.5 N:25.6, Yang detected low frequency precursor signals with durations of up to 10 seconds and concluded that they were associated with possible seismic activity in the Longmenshan mountain area around E:103-105 N:30-32 .

       Upon consultation with personnel at the Wenxian County EQ Research Institute, Longnan City, Gansu province in China Yang learned that those people were also detecting some type of earthquake precursor with their own instrumentation.  And they regarded it as being associated with seismic activity in the same Longmenshan mountain area around E:103-105 N:30-32

       An earthquake “Short-term/Imminent Prediction Card” was jointly prepared and sent by Fax to China’s State Earthquake Administration Bureau on March 17, 2008.  It stated:

       “Between March 17 and April 1, 2008 in the Rangtang area of the Qinghai-Sichuan border area there might an earthquake around Ms5.6.”

Fig. 1 A copy of the short-term/imminent earthquake prediction card sent
by Fax by the Longnan Wenxian County Earthquake Research
Institute after consultation with Zhi-min, Yang

       The 7.9 magnitude Wenchuan earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008 at 30.98N 103.32E.  That is essentially the same E:103-105 N:30-32 location forecast by Yang and his associates.  However, it appears that if they were expecting that particular earthquake then their proposed time window for it was off by more than a month.

Fig. 2 The geo-electric potential earthquake precursor signal
recorded by the SE9 instrument at the Gansu province
Longnan Wenxian County Earthquake Research Institute

       On March 17 before filling out the above earthquake Short-term/Imminent Prediction Card, the recordings of the geo-electric potential monitoring instrument at the Wenxian County Earthquake Research Institute suddenly increased.  Wenxian Institute personnel later stated that:

       “This (the above) data recorded by our SE9 model earth-electric potential instrument shows high signal noise ratio (SBR).  The first apparent reduction corresponds to the Xinjiang Ms7.3 earthquake (March 20, 2008).  And the 2nd apparent reduction corresponds to the Sichuan Wenchuan earthquake (May 12, 2008).”

THE  FOLLOWING  ARE  THREE  OF  YANG’S  OBSERVATIONS
REGARDING  THE  PRECURSOR  SIGNALS  BEING  MONITORED
BY  HIS  CUSTOM  BUILT  DETECTOR

Fig. 3 A hypothetical representation of Yang’s three
observations related to this earthquake precursor

Observation # 1

The precursor signal is usually detected some 3 to 12 hours before the earthquake occurs.