THE  IRAN  EARTHQUAKE

Latest Update:   January 3, 2007

ON DECEMBER 26, 2003, THE CITY OF BAM, IRAN

WAS DEVASTATED BY THE FOLLOWING POWERFUL EARTHQUAKE:

2003/12/26 01:56:52 29.00N 58.33E 10.0 6.6 Southeastern Iran

(U.S. National Earthquake Information Service data)

News reports have stated that the earthquake claimed some 30,000 lives.

       The ETDPROG.pl computer programs which were used to generate the data tables on this Web page did not exist at the time that the earthquake occurred.  However, earthquake warning type signal data were collected during the months before the earthquake and after it occurred.  And those data were recently evaluated using the latest version of the ETDPROG.pl program.  It generated the table data shown here.

       The Wave Chart on this Web page shows the times when medium and high intensity electromagnetic (EM) signals were detected during the three months before the earthquake occurred.  One or more low intensity signals were also detected just about every day during that time period.  They are not shown in the chart.

       Table 1 on this Web page shows what would have been displayed on the Data.html Web page on December 25, 2003, the day before the earthquake had it been possible to update the Web page at that time.

Tables 2 and 3 on this Web page show how those types of data can be displayed using a newly developed format.

       It is my opinion that these table data provide clear evidence that earthquake warning type signals being detected days, weeks, and months before December 26 were pointing to approaching seismic activity in the Bam, Iran area.

       If the computer programs used to evaluate the warning signals were more advanced and accurate or if other earthquake researchers had been able to determine that an earthquake was about to occur there then it might have been possible to pinpoint its location and warn people about its approach.

Comments:  -  Note how the earthquake occurred at about the same relative position on the chart waves as that intensely strong October 29, 2003 solar - geomagnetic storm.  Also note how the higher intensity EM signals started being detected after the storm occurred.  It is possible that not all of the EM signals shown on the chart were associated with the Bam, Iran earthquake.  There was also a destructive earthquake in California on December 22.  The fact that the EM signals in the chart were detected at somewhat random looking times shows how difficult it can be to determine exactly when an expected earthquake is going to occur.  (See also Wave Chart Definitions)

       TABLE 1  shows what would have been displayed on this Web site's Data.html Web page on December 25, 2003, the day before the Bam, Iran earthquake had it been possible to generate that Web page table at the time.

       If you scroll down to the 58 E longitude listings (+58) you will find quite a few earthquakes listed there which have longitudes between 53 E and 63 E.  Large numbers of earthquakes listed like that for some area is often a clear indicator that strong seismic activity could be expected somewhere in the area.  Even more striking information of that type can be found farther down the page in TABLE 2.

       TABLE 2  presents the data using a different format.  In this case the data evaluation computer programs were instructed to list only earthquakes which had longitudes between 53 E and 63 E.  And they were told to display multiple warning signal time windows for earthquakes in that range instead of ones for just a single time window.

       The 23,000 earthquakes in the database file used to generate all three of these tables were ones which occurred between the beginning of 1990 and December 25, 2003, the day before the deadly Iran earthquake.

       Each of the time windows in this table represents an averaging together of as many as several hundred warning signals detected during three month periods of time which ended on the dates listed in the table.  So in effect each of those groups of earthquakes shows how many earthquakes would have appeared within the 53 E and 63 E longitude range on the main Data.html Web page table had the table been generated on the stated day.  To produce “before and after” information, time periods up to March 23, 2004 have been included in the table.

       If you scroll down to the weeks and months before December 26, 2003 and then scroll slowly upwards you can see that there is a gradual increase in the number of earthquakes listed for each time period within the 53 E to 63 E longitude range.  For example, there was only 1 of those earthquakes in the time window which ended on October 18 versus 8 in the one ending December 25.  And the number in each time window gradually decreases for the time periods after the December 25 earthquake occurred.

       It is my opinion that those table data clearly show that warning signals were pointing ever more strongly to possible significant seismic activity for the Bam, Iran area as the day of the earthquake approached.

       It might also be significant that a large number of earthquakes appeared in the time window ending June 21, 2003.  That was 6 months before the December 22 earthquake.  My theories propose that the forces responsible for earthquakes being triggered probably have similar maximum values at times which are 6 months apart like that.