YEAR CHARTS
Latest Update: December 10, 2009
ETDPROG.EXE EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
PROGRAM RELATED
AVERAGED EM SIGNAL TIME
WINDOW CHARTS
FOR THE YEARS 2001
THROUGH 2009
The Latest Earthquake Forecasting Data
GENERAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE YEAR CHARTS
OBSERVATIONS REGARDING THE YEAR CHART DATA
YEAR CHARTS FOR THE YEARS 2001 THROUGH 2009
GENERAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE YEAR CHARTS
Year Chart Availability - The present download capacity of this EQ-Forecasting Web site is limited. So, most of the charts displayed on this Web page are stored on an Internet Web Server that is different than the one where this Year Charts Web page is located. That other Web Server is running most of the time. But when it is not those charts will not display. If that happens, please try reloading this Web page at a later time. Or you can try contacting me at seismic@ix.netcom.com for an E-mail zip file copy of the charts.
Etdprog.exe Data - The freeware Etdprog.exe Earthquake and Tornado Data evaluation computer PROGram generates a number of different types of earthquake forecasting and earthquake triggering research data. Those data include the Year Charts discussed on this Web page.
The Year Charts display information regarding what are believed to be earthquake fault zone activity related electromagnetic energy field pulses (EM Signals) that were detected between late in the year 2000 and the present. The signals have duration times of 0.25 seconds up to 20 seconds and can be easily detected around the world. Chart data are intended in part to show that many or most of those signals are indicators that an earthquake is approaching. And the facts that the signals exist and that they can be detected are telling us that at least some earthquakes can be predicted.
DATA ON EACH OF THE YEAR CHARTS
--- As shown on the above chart (the lower section of the year 2003 chart) the vertical Y axis represents time. It is represented on each of the Year Charts as 62 time window lines. The lines at the top of a chart are the most recent.
--- The horizontal X axis is longitude. The left side of each time window line is west longitude with a twenty degree east longitude overlap that makes the data easier to study. The right side is east longitude with a twenty degree west longitude overlap.
--- Where there are peaks at some longitude on a line it means that the Etdprog.exe computer program determined that EM Signals associated with the line were good matches for earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude. And the presence of the peaks means that an earthquake could be approaching for some location along that longitude line.
DETAILS REGARDING WHAT EACH TIME LINE REPRESENTS
--- The Etdprog.exe computer program uses sun and moon position and ocean and Solid Earth Tide crest and trough location data to compare individual EM Signals with more than 50,000 earthquakes that occurred since the beginning of 1990. The program probability equations generate a number that indicates the quality of each of those EM Signal – earthquake comparisons. Many millions of calculations are performed to generate the more than 50,000 earthquake comparison numbers associated with each EM Signal. With a relatively new computer it takes about twenty seconds to process a single EM Signal. The comparison numbers for that signal are then stored in a computer file so that the calculations do not have to be repeated. Detailed explanations regarding how those calculations are done can be found on the Etdprog.html and Interpret.html Web pages.
--- Each time window line on a given Year Chart represents three months worth of those EM Signal – earthquake comparisons that have been averaged together to produce a single time window comparision line for the time period that ends with the date of the line. That averaging process compensates for the somewhat random looking fluctuations encountered with individual EM Signal – earthquake comparisons. As stated earlier, where there is a peak at some longitude on one of those time window lines it means that some of the EM Signals that were used to generate that three month time window line were good matches with earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude.
--- Also as stated earlier, when those peaks start to appear at some longitude on a time window chart line then it might be an indicator that an earthquake will occur in the future at that longitude.
--- Each of those three month averaged EM Signal time windows might contain data for as few as a dozen EM Signals up to more than one hundred and fifty signals. The number of EM Signals in a given time window is determined by how many signals were recorded around that time. That number varies widely from month to month and year to year.
--- The length of that three month averaging time period is adjustable in the latest version of the Etdprog.exe computer program. Three months was selected for the initial studies.
--- Each of the time window lines is offset from the one above it and the one below it by ten days. That offset time is also adjustable in the latest version of the Etdprog.exe program. Some early testing suggests that seven day offsets might produce better data.
--- Each Year Chart displays those averaged time window EM Signal data for that entire year plus an overlap of about four months before and after the year, a total of 62 time widow lines. The year 2009 chart is an exception in that it displays 62 time window lines that start at the present and go backwards in time.
--- In some cases peaks associated with an approaching earthquake might be appearing on a chart, but they will be at longitudes other than the longitude where the approaching earthquake actually occurred. One of the reasons for that is the fact that the Etdprog.exe computer program regards longitudes that are 90 and 180 degrees apart from one another as being somewhat equivalent. And so, peaks associated with an approaching earthquake might at times appear exactly 90 or 180 longitude degrees to the east or to the west of the earthquake’s true longitude. In other cases an earthquake might have been triggered by forces that were similar to ones that triggered earthquakes that occurred in the past at some other longitude.
--- Peaks frequently appear on time window lines at an earthquake’s longitude for a while after the earthquake occurs. That could be associated in part with earthquake aftershocks. It is also partly associated with the fact that because of the lengthy three month’s data averaging process, for several months after an earthquake occurs the time window lines still contain data for EM Signals that were detected before the earthquake.
Some of the data from early in the year 2001 are not as good as those from other years as relatively few EM Signals were recorded in late 2000 and early 2001.
The Database File Earthquake Chart Line - At the bottom of each of the Year Charts there is a line # 63 referred to as the Database Earthquakes line. The heights of the peaks at different longitudes on that line indicate the number of earthquakes that occurred at that longitude out of the more than 50,000 earthquakes in the database file used to generate the chart.
THE YEAR CHARTS HAVE
A NUMBER OF PURPOSES RELATED
TO
EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND EARTHQUAKE
TRIGGERING RESEARCH.
Earthquake Forecasting Applications - Researchers can examine the charts and determine if the Etdprog.exe computer program based earthquake forecasting method discussed at this Web site could have been used to detect the approach of specific earthquakes that occurred between the start of the year 2001 and the present time. As explained earlier, when chart lines peaks are present at some longitude on one of the time window chart lines it might have been an indicator that an earthquake would occur in the future at that longitude.
For one example, the arrows on the following partial copy of the 2003 Year Chart point to time window line peaks that started to form a little to the left (west) of the yellow 121 W longitude line around the beginning of November, 2003. They might have been indicators that the powerful and destructive 121 W December 22, 2003 earthquake in the San Francisco area was approaching. That means that had the Etdprog.exe computer program existed in its present form back in the year 2003 then it might have been possible for people to predict and prepare for that earthquake.
Year Charts such as the above chart 2003r where the year number is followed by an “r” are based on the same EM Signal data as the original chart for that year. But they contain additional data such as information regarding significant earthquakes that occurred during the year.
For one example, the following partial copy of the 2003r chart contains information regarding two destructive earthquakes that occurred in California, USA and Bam, Iran in late December of that year. There is a separate time line for each of the earthquakes. Peaks at different longitudes on those earthquake lines show that the earthquake was a good match for earthquakes that occurred in the past at that longitude.
The December 22, 2003 California earthquake time line in the above chart has a structure that is quite similar to the December 22, 2003 Year Chart time window line. And that is an indicator that a number of the EM Signals in that year 2003 averaged EM Signal time window and time window lines going back to the beginning of November, 2003 were probably pointing to the approach of that earthquake. That similar line structure is not found with the December 26, 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake. However, smaller peaks at 58 E longitude suggest that some of the EM Signals in the time windows around that time were probably pointing to the approach of that earthquake.
The following second example is a partial copy of the 2004r chart. It shows how time window line peaks were present in the 96 E longitude area for many months before the extremely powerful and destructive December 26, 2004 earthquake occurred in the Indonesia area. A tsunami (tidal wave) generated by the earthquake reportedly claimed a quarter of a million lives.
With individual earthquake lines it might be expected that the largest peak on the line would be at the earthquake’s true longitude. But that is observed only part of the time because of the somewhat random nature of the earthquake triggering processes.
Chart lines for quite a few destructive earthquakes can also be found in the Eathquakes-1 2 3 and 4 charts displayed at the bottom of this Web page. Researchers can compare them with Year Chart data for the years in which the earthquakes occurred.
The scrolling window viewers on the Data.html Web page can be used to examine the Charts.
Graphics programs such as Windows Paint @ can be used to generate printouts of the charts. Vertical longitude lines can then be drawn on the printouts. And the bottom section of one of the charts can be used for a longitude reference scale.
Spreadsheet programs such as Microsoft Excel @ or the one available with OpenOffice 3.1.1 @ can be used to compare the charts. The following is an example of how Excel could be used with multiple windows to study year 2003 time lines.
Earthquake Triggering Research Applications - Researchers can also study the Year Charts and hopefully learn important things about how earthquakes are being triggered and how the EM Signals are being generated. If any significant observations are made by researchers examining those data I would be interested in hearing about them. Please send any comments to: seismic@ix.netcom.com
OBSERVATIONS REGARDING THE YEAR CHART DATA
--- One of the most significant observations is the fact that peaks on the time window lines can remain roughly at the same longitudes for a number of months and then rapidly shift to other longitudes. Each time window can be based on a dozen, to more than one hundred and fifty EM Signals. If the signals were random events then the peak patterns on the time window lines might all look the same for time windows involving large numbers of signals, or they might continuously fluctuate for windows involving only a dozen or so signals. The peak patterns would not remain stable for months and then rapidly change. This observation demonstrates that the signals are being controlled by something. And the list of possible control factors could include approaching earthquakes, volcanic activity, and solar and geomagnetic storm activity etc.
--- During the months after some powerful earthquakes occur, the longitudes of the peaks on the charts shift dramatically. That could be indicating that earthquake fault zone strain is shifting from where the earthquake occurred to other locations. And that would be important information for earthquake researchers and forecasters to be aware of.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
--- Some current EM Signal data are presented on the Data.htmlWeb page.
--- Detailed discussions of a variety of methods for evaluating these Etdprog.exe computer program related Chart, Map, and Report data can be found on the Etdprog.html and Interpret.html Web pages.
--- Some of the EM Signals used with this forecasting method are described on the Earthquake Triggering, Earthquake Precursor Signal Generation, and Earthquake Sensitivity Theory Pictures Web page.
--- Other earthquake forecasting programs are listed on the Earthquake Forecasting Resources Web page and discussed at the International Society For Earthquake Precursors Web Site.
YEAR CHARTS FOR THE YEARS 2001 THROUGH 2009
The following Charts contain data lines for powerful earthquakes, most of which were destructive, that occurred between October of 1989 and the present. The data lines can be compared with the data for the Year Chart during which the earthquake occurred. As proposed earlier on this Web page, various graphics and spreadsheet programs can be used to compare these earthquakes with the Year Chart in which the earthquakes occurred.
This first version of this Web page was
stored at this site on
October 19, 2009. Comments regarding this
Web site are welcome.
Please send them to: seismic@ix.netcom.com
The information in
this Web page represents
expressions of personal opinion by
the Web page author. The
address -URL- for this Web page
is:
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Year_Charts.html
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